Total cases

Daily cases

Recovered cases

Total deaths

Total tests performed: How many tests did Madagascar so far?

Fanamarihana sy filazana

02-Jolay-2020: Tsy ampy ny fanazavana tamin’ny tatitra ofisialy ary tsy fantatra raha tamin’ny faritra efa nisy ilay valan’aretina na faritra vaovao no nisehoan’ny tranga vaovao.

Nanomboka tamin ny 02-Jolay-2020: Tsy notaterina ny endri-manavaka (lahy na vavy) sy ny taonan’ireo olona nodimandry

Misy fiantraikany amin’ny fahamarinan’ny tarehimarika sasany aseho etsy ambany ireo tsy fahampiam-baovao ireo

Isan’ny tranga isan’andro sy ny salan’isa mandritra izany (7 andro)

Fivoaran’ny tranga: Tranga vaovao, sitrana ary nodimandry

Sarintany mampiseho ny tranga: Firy ny tranga voamarina isaky ny faritra eto Madagasikara?

Tsy voalaza tamin’ny tatitra ofisialy ny faritra nisy ireo tranga sasany. Misy fiantraikany amin’ny fahamarinan’ny tarehimarika sasany aseho etsy ambany ireo tsy fahampiam-baovao ireo

COVID-19 eto Madagasikara?

Ny COVID-19 dia aretina vokatry ny coronavirus vaovao (SARS-CoV-2), izay nitranga voalohany tany Wuhan, Sina tamin’ny Novambra/Desambra 2019.

Ny fivezivezenan’ny mponina no nanafaingana ny fielin’ity valan’aretina ity eran’izao tontolo izao. Hatramin’ny volana Jolay 2020, olona mihoatra ny 10 tapitrisa mahery no efa voa ary olona mihoatra ny 5 hetsy no efa nodimandry.

Satria niroborobe be ny aretina tany Sina dia nampiato ny sidina rehetra nampifandray an’i Sina sy Madagasikara ny Governemanta Malagasy nanomboka ny 10 Febroary 2020. Ny sidina iraisam-pirenena rehetra kosa dia naato nanomboka ny 20-Martsa-2020.

Na izany aza, tamin’ny 20-Martsa-2020 no voamarina ny tranga voalohany tsimok’aretina COVID-19 teto Madagasikara. Olona telo tonga avy any Eoropa alohan’ny nanakatonana tanteraka ny seranam-paramanidina izy ireo.

Nametraka ny “amehana ara-pahasalamana” ny mpitondra fanjakana mba hamerana ny fivezivezena ao anatin’ny faritra sy ny fifaneraserana ara-paritra manerana ny Nosy. Efa nalefahana ny sasany tamin’ireo fepetra noraisina.

Nisy ny fitiliana natao indrindra ho an’ireo tranga nampiahiahy. Ny Institut Pasteur de Madagascar teto Antananarivo no nahazo alalana hanao fitiliana ny volana Janoary 2020 ary efa nahavita fitiliana mihoatra ny 14 000 hatreto. Telo volana taty aoriana, niampy telo ireo laboratoara afaka manao ny fitiliana ka isan;izany ny Center d’Infectiologie Charles Merieux, ny laboratoaran’ny hopitaly HJRA, ary ny Laboratoire d’Analyses Medicales de Madagascar (LA2M). Ireo laboratoara ireo no miaraka manome ny isan’ireo fitiliana isan’andro (salan’isa nandritra ny 5 andro) = 901.6

Hatramin’ny July 30 2020 Madagasikana dia nanamarina 10,748 tranga ao 21 faritra sy 105 nodimandry

Fitambaran’ny tranga rehetra: Fivoaran’ny isan’ny tranga vaovao voatily isaky ny faritra? & Isan’ny tranga isan’andro sy ny salan’isa mandritra izany (7 andro)

Tondro sy haipaika voafantina

Fitiliana: RT-PCR ( Real Time-Polymerase Chain Reaction) no anaran’ny fitiliana hanamarinana na mitondra ny tsimok’aretina ny olona na tsia. Mitady ny fisian’ny ny fitaovana fototarazon’ilay viriosy ao amin’ny vatan’olombelona. Io karazana fitiliana io dia ahafahan’ny mpahay siansa manamarina fa mitondra ny SARS-CoV-2 ary afaka mamindra ny otrik’aretina amin’ny olon-kafa ny olona iray amin’io fotoana io.

Tranga: Olona iray izay nanaovana fakana singa ka nahazoana valiny mihabo taorian’ny fitiliana RT-PCR nataon’ny iray tamin’ireo laboratoara nahazo fankatoavana

Salan’isa mikisaka: Kajy atao mba handravonana ny fiovan’ny tarehimarika isan’andro. Ohatra ny isan’ny tranga vaovao ny alahady dia fandravonana ny isan’ny tranga nandritra ny 5 andro (Alarobia hatramin’ny Alahady) na 7 andro (Alatsinainy hatramin’ny Alahady) mialoha. Mikisaka manaraka an’izay koa raha Alatsinainy sns. Izany no atao dia mba hanamorana ny fanombanana ny fironan’ilay famantarana ary manampy amin’ny fisorohana ny hetsika izay mety handiso ilay fironana. Ohatra, mety hiakatra na hihena tampoka ny fitiliana ao anatin’iray andro noho ny antony samihafa (Ohatra: Ny faran’ny herinandro).

Tahan’ny fihaboana: Mampiseho ny ampahan’ny fitiliana (isan-jato) izay nampiseho valiny mihabo. Ho an’ny Fikambanana Iraisam-pirenena momba ny Fahasalamana, ny tahan’ny fihaboana manodidina ny 3-12% dia mari-pamantarana fa ampy ny isan’ny fitiliana (reference). Mampiseho fa vitsy loatra ny fitiliana natao raha avo ny fihaboana (ohatra: mihoatra ny 12%) ary tsy ahafahana mamantatra ny tena isan’olona mitondra ilay tsimok’aretina marina

Taham-pahafatesana: Antotan’isan’ireo tranga voamarina sy mihabo matin’ny COVID-19 hatramin’ny daty voatondro

Total tests performed: How many tests did Madagascar perform so far?

Tests per thousand: How many tests did Madagascar perform so far?

Fihaboana (Salan’isa mandritra ny 5 andro)

Daily tests (moving average)

Fivoaran’ny fitiliana isan’andro

Tahan’ny fihaboana isan’andro sy salan’isa mandrtra ny 5 andro

Total deaths

Overall case fatality rate

daily deaths

Sary maneho ny endri-manavaka (lahy na vavy) sy ny taonan’ ireo nodimandry

Tsy notaterina nandritra ny fanambarana ny endri-manavaka (lahy na vavy) sy ny taonan’ny olona sasany ka tsy afaka naseho eto amin’ity sary ity

Fivoaran’ny isan’ny olona nodimandry: Isa sy salan’isa isan’andro

R_t National Estimate

Expected cases

Notes

• We simulated infection dates (n = 500) using the methods described here.

• Expected change in daily cases were classified as:
  • Increasing: < 5% of resulting R_t estimates were below 1.
  • Likely increasing: < 20% of resulting R_t estimates were below 1.
  • Unsure: 20 - 80% of resulting R_t estimates were below 1
  • Likely decreasing: > 80% of resulting R_t estimates were below 1
  • Decreasing: > 95% of of resulting R_t estimates were below 1

• For model estimates of R_t and cases, the darker shading shows the 50% credible intervals and the lighter shaded ribbon shows the 90% credible intervals.

• Forecasts of R_t at low/zero case counts have wide credible intervals and low confidence.

• There are a number of limitations and uncertainties in these methods, many of which are reviewed here.